Publications scientifiques
Autres affiliations : Unité de Modélisation Mathématique et Informatique des Systèmes Complexes
Jacques Demongeot* (Auteur correspondant)
Autres affiliations : Orange (France) · Université Grenoble Alpes
Kayode Oshinubi
Autres affiliations : Orange (France) · Université Grenoble Alpes
Mustapha Rachdi
Autres affiliations : Orange (France) · Université Grenoble Alpes
Hervé Seligmann
Autres affiliations : Orange (France) · Hebrew University of Jerusalem · National Library of Israel · Université Grenoble Alpes
Florence Thuderoz
Autres affiliations : Orange (France) · Université Grenoble Alpes
Computation
(1) Background: The estimation of daily reproduction numbers throughout the contagiousness period is rarely considered, and only their sum R0 is calculated to quantify the contagiousness level of an infectious disease. (2) Methods: We provide the equation of the discrete dynamics of the epidemic’s growth and obtain an estimation of the daily reproduction numbers by using a deconvolution technique on a series of new COVID-19 cases. (3) Results: We provide both simulation results and estimations for several countries and waves of the COVID-19 outbreak. (4) Discussion: We discuss the role of noise on the stability of the epidemic’s dynamics. (5) Conclusions: We consider the possibility of improving the estimation of the distribution of daily reproduction numbers during the contagiousness period by taking into account the heterogeneity due to several host age classes.
